The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that Mozambique is not yet free from the danger that the covid-19 pandemic poses to the economy, similarly to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
“Mozambique has dominated the second wave of the pandemic, but the trajectory of the disease is uncertain and it seems clear that the entire sub-Saharan Africa region is not out of danger,” said Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, IMF representative in the country.
Speaking Friday at the virtual presentation of the IMF’s report for Sub-Saharan Africa and focusing on Mozambique, Meyer-Cirkel explained that while in the region the average number of days children were out of school due to the pandemic was 67, in Mozambique it was close to 100.
“Our perception is also that classes on weekends and using technology do not compensate for the lack of face-to-face classes,” she said.
The IMF predicts that GDP per capita will not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2023. “The negative scenario, which incorporates delays in vaccine distribution in the sub-Saharan Africa region, would delay the return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2024,” it warns.
During the presentation of the report, the IMF representative stressed that Mozambique’s GDP growth forecast for 2021 has been raised from 2.1 to 1.6 percent.
“However, this forecast does not yet incorporate the effects of the March attacks in Palma, which means that it may be revised downwards as a result of the evolution of the situation, which has aggravated the risks. Despite the uncertainties, there are also positive risks, such as the marked recovery in large countries like the United States and the increase in coal production capacity by Vale,” added Alexis Meyer-Cirkel.
According to him, the economic outcome in 2020 was worse than projected by the IMF. “We anticipated a contraction of 0.5 percent, but it turned out to be 1.3 percent because of lower coal and aluminum exports because of temporary reforms at the Moatize mine and cooled global demand, which was a reflection of the pandemic,” he said.
