The representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Mozambique said this Friday that the reduction of the growth forecast to 1.6% this year does not take into account the effects of attacks in the north of the country.
“The result in 2020 was a little worse than we projected, we anticipated a contraction of 0.5 percent, but it turned out to be 1.3 percent because of lower coal and aluminum exports due to temporary reforms at the Moatize mine, and cooled global demand, which was a reflection of the pandemic,” Alexis Meyer-Cirkel said.
During a presentation on the Fund’s latest report for sub-Saharan Africa and focusing on Mozambique, the IMF country leader said that “the forecast for GDP growth in 2021 has been raised from 2.1% to 1.6%, however this forecast does not yet incorporate the effects of the March attacks in Palma,” meaning that it could be revised downwards as a result of the evolving situation, which has aggravated the risks.
“Although uncertainties have increased due to the insurgency in the north, there are also positive risks, such as the marked recovery in large countries like the United States and the increase in coal production capacity by Vale,” Alexis Meyer-Cirkel added.
In his speech, the IMF resident representative in Mozambique since late last year stressed that “Mozambique has dominated the second wave” of the pandemic, but warned that “the trajectory is uncertain and it seems clear that the region is not out of danger.
The uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic, moreover, led the IMF to predict that GDP per capita will only return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, “but the negative scenario, which incorporates delays in vaccine distribution in the sub-Saharan Africa region, would delay the return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2024.”
In the case of Mozambique, he stressed, “the trajectory is more beneficial, but does not yet incorporate the effects of the insurgency” in the north of the country.
Reviewing the main indicators of the country, the IMF representative in Mozambique pointed out that while in sub-Saharan Africa the average number of days that children stayed out of school due to the pandemic was 67, in Mozambique it was close to 100, and considered that classes on weekends and using technology do not compensate for the lack of classroom lessons.
