The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that a high-intensity El Niño event could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute hunger worldwide by the end of 2027, with Southern Africa — and Angola's southern provinces in particular — among the regions facing the gravest risk.
Angola is among the African countries most exposed to the phenomenon. An analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), dedicated specifically to the country, projects that El Niño-induced drought will drive conditions to Crisis level — Phase 3 of the international Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale — in Angola's southern regions as early as November. The scenario reflects the structural vulnerability of Cunene, Huíla and Namibe provinces, which are historically the most affected by cyclical droughts associated with the climatic event.
The warning forms part of a broader report released this week by the WFP, which estimates that a severe El Niño episode could raise the total number of people unable to meet their daily nutritional needs globally to 274 million.
According to the report, there is an 81% probability that the current episode will develop into a high-intensity El Niño, with Pacific Ocean surface temperatures already reaching their highest levels since at least 1982 — a trajectory that could make this the strongest such event since 1950. The peak is expected between September and December this year, with effects projected to persist throughout 2027 due to the compounding impact on harvest cycles.
Southern Africa is among the hardest-hit regions in the WFP's analysis, which covers 45 countries already considered vulnerable to food insecurity across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Central America and Southern Africa are projected to be the most severely affected regions: acute food insecurity is forecast to rise by 83% in Central America and by nearly 75% in Southern Africa — a jump the WFP says could translate into more than 12 million new cases in that combined region, including South America and the Caribbean.
Across East and Southern Africa, more than 18 million people may face a deterioration in food access — an estimated increase of 26% relative to current levels. The WFP notes that Southern Africa faces a particularly elevated risk because a significant share of its population depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, a farming model that is especially vulnerable to prolonged drought and irregular precipitation patterns.
'El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions of people who are already vulnerable,' said Carl Skau, WFP's Acting Executive Director, in a statement. 'The sooner we help families prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods.'
More than 2.2 million people had already been affected by El Niño-linked drought in Cunene, Huíla and Namibe provinces, prompting the Episcopal Conference of Angola and São Tomé and Príncipe to urge the government to 'assume responsibility and act with urgency'. The scale of the crisis has, during previous episodes, led Angolan children to cross the border into neighbouring Namibia to escape food and water shortages in their home region.
The phenomenon is not new to southern Angola: meteorological data show recurrent El Niño-associated droughts since the 1990s — in 1992/93, 1998/99, 2012/13, 2015/16 and 2018/19. The 2021/22 episode, considered one of the most severe in recent decades, affected more than 1.3 million people, devastating crops and pastureland across the region.
To address this structural vulnerability, the Angolan government has the FRESAN programme under way — Strengthening Resilience and Food and Nutritional Security in Angola — funded by the European Union with €65 million and co-managed by Camões, the Portuguese Cooperation and Language Institute, in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The programme specifically targets the three most affected southern provinces, with the objective of reinforcing household resilience, supporting sustainable agricultural production and improving the nutritional situation of the most vulnerable communities.
The WFP said it had already, since May, activated prevention programmes in several vulnerable countries including South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala and El Salvador, committing more than US$14 million to reach approximately 500,000 people. The agency estimates that every dollar invested in prevention can avert between three and seven dollars in future losses and humanitarian costs — an argument that underscores the urgency of mobilising preventive resources for southern Angola before the expected year-end peak of the phenomenon further compounds a situation already flagged as alarming by international agencies.
The coming months will be critical. With the El Niño peak forecast for late 2024 and its agricultural and humanitarian consequences expected to ripple into 2027, the window for preventive action in Angola's most exposed provinces is narrowing rapidly, according to the WFP's assessment.
Source: Mercado / Original article: https://mercado.co.ao/el-nino-pode-agravar-fome-aguda-de-mais-49-milhoes-de-pessoas-ate-2027-alerta-onu/
