The international consultancy Oxford Economics forecasts that Angola’s oil production will reach an average of 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026, representing an increase of 6.5% compared to the 1.07 million barrels per day recorded on average in 2025.
According to Oxford Economics, this positive trend will be supported by the start-up of new oil projects in the third quarter of 2025, which are expected to reach full capacity only during the first half of 2026. The forecast is included in an analysis note on oil production for the month of December.
Analysts, however, emphasize that the Angolan economy remains poorly diversified and heavily dependent on the oil sector, which accounted for around 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 50% of state revenues in 2024. “Without viable alternatives to oil exports, the country has little choice but to maintain or increase production, even in the context of lower demand or lower international prices,” the note sent to clients states.
According to data from the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG), Angola produced 31,863,172 barrels of crude oil in December 2025, equivalent to an average of 1,027,844 barrels per day, below the monthly target set at 1,080,238 barrels per day.
Even so, in the same month, the country exported 35,258,138 barrels of oil, corresponding to a daily average of 1,137,359 barrels, above the estimated monthly export forecast of 1,108,226 barrels per day.
Compared to November 2025, when the average daily production was 1,060,660 barrels, December figures show a slight monthly decrease, but still remain above the one-million-barrel-per-day mark. On a year-on-year basis, December 2025 production was slightly higher than in the same month of 2024.
In terms of revenues, Angola collected $24.4 billion from oil exports in 2025, 22.16% less than in 2024, having exported around 357.1 million barrels of crude, according to government data.
The Secretary of State for Oil and Gas, José Barroso, indicated that Angolan oil was sold last year at an average price of $68.4 per barrel, representing a drop of 14.19% compared to the previous year. Exported volume also decreased by 9.28% compared to 2024, when the country sold 396.6 million barrels.
China, India, and Indonesia were the main destinations for Angolan oil exports in 2025, absorbing 58.57%, 11%, and 8.28% of the total, respectively.
Source: Mercado
