With each producing 30,000 barrels per day, the new projects that recently came online have helped ease the decline but still lack the capacity to reverse the ongoing production slump. In the third quarter of this year, three oil projects — Begónia, Clov 3, and Agogo — began operations to strengthen Angola’s national oil production, yet they remain insufficient to stop the downward trend that has persisted since 2016.
Operated by TotalEnergies, Begónia is the first interblock subsea development in Angola, located 150 kilometers off the Angolan coast, specifically in Blocks 17 and 17/06, at water depths between 800 and 1,200 meters, involving the subsea connection of five oil wells tied to the existing FPSO Pazflor facilities.
The project cost USD 850 million and is expected to add 30,000 barrels per day to the FPSO Pazflor’s output. CLOV Phase 3, also operated by TotalEnergies, is a satellite project in deep offshore Block 17 and involves a subsea tieback of five producing wells connected to the existing FPSO CLOV infrastructure. It has an estimated production of 30,000 barrels per day as well.
Meanwhile, the FPSO Agogo, currently one of the most advanced oil production platforms in the world, was developed to support the additional development of Block 15/06 through the Agogo Integrated West Hub Project, operated by Azule Energy, which holds 36.84%, in partnership with Sonangol P&P (36.84%) and Sinopec International (26.32%). The Agogo and Ndungu fields together hold estimated reserves of around 450 million barrels and a projected peak output of 175,000 barrels per day, produced through two FPSOs (Agogo and Ngoma).
“These are small projects. Just look at their production capacity. They’ll help smooth the decline and stabilize production levels around 1 million barrels per day for a few years, but the long-term production outlook through 2030 is negative,” said Vladimir Pereira.
He added that these new projects are still in their initial ramp-up phase, during which production increases gradually until it reaches plateau phase, when output stabilizes at a constant rate. Thus, according to the analyst, unless Angola brings major fields into production — like those discovered in Blocks 17, 0, 15, and 32 — the country will be producing below 1 million barrels per day in the near future.
For his part, Flávio Inocêncio, an oil and gas expert, believes that Angola’s oil output is in decline because the country’s proven reserves are around 8 billion barrels, and the reserves-to-production ratio is low — although earlier forecasts were even more pessimistic. “Rystad Energy predicted a sharper decline, with Angola potentially dropping to 650,000 barrels per day by 2032,” he said. Meanwhile, the government’s Angola 2050 long-term strategy projects 770,000 barrels per day by 2030 and only 340,000 barrels per day in 25 years.
“The reason is simple: the decline of mature wells and insufficient exploration in past years determine today’s sector performance. However, this has been partially addressed by new reforms — particularly incremental production policies and new licensing rounds — which have somewhat mitigated the decline. So, it’s no surprise that production is falling. There haven’t been any significant new discoveries to offset the natural decline,” he concluded.
It’s worth noting that Angola left OPEC in December 2023 following a dispute over its oil production quota. At the time, the country protested against an OPEC+ cap of 1.2 million barrels per day, which was still well above its actual output. However, since then, Angola has never reached the cartel’s target, raising questions about the true motivations behind its withdrawal from the organization.
Source: Expansão
