US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.25% on Monday — the highest level since 2007 — as fears that elevated oil prices will persist for longer pushed borrowing costs sharply higher across global fixed-income markets. For Angola, the development carries a double-edged consequence: stronger petroleum export revenues on one hand, and costlier external financing on the other.
The 10-year US Treasury note, the global benchmark for credit costs, hit 5.25% in Monday’s session, while 30-year yields rose to 5.57%, a level last seen in 2004. Both moves reflect deepening investor concern that inflationary pressures from energy markets will keep monetary policy tight for longer.
The primary driver is crude oil. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an offer Tehran had floated at the United Nations General Assembly. According to US media, Trump said Iran had gone too far and expressed hope that negotiations would resume during the week, while Tehran insisted it would not soften its conditions.
Oil markets reacted sharply but briefly. Brent crude jumped more than four dollars per barrel at the open before paring gains to close roughly 1% higher, near US$105, as Qatari mediators were expected to hold separate talks with both Iran and the United States.
Further tempering the initial spike were reports that Saudi Aramco had resumed shipments through its East-West Pipeline, which carries approximately 4% of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia had shut down the infrastructure entirely on 11 September as a precautionary measure after attacks damaged pumping stations along the route.
Analysts note that US interest rates have become tightly bound to the price of crude. According to BMO Capital Markets, the one-month correlation between WTI crude and 10-year Treasury yields reached 0.96. A strategist quoted by The Wall Street Journal summarised the dynamic: persistent oil prices, sticky inflation expectations, a resilient economy and large government financing needs are together pushing discount rates higher across the globe.
The move marks a sharp reversal from the start of the year. In early 2026, several Wall Street banks had forecast Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran — combined with signs of economic resilience — has fundamentally redrawn the monetary policy outlook. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 earlier this month; in January, the 10-year yield stood at 4.15%. Markets are now pricing in approximately a 70% probability of another rate increase at the 28 October meeting.
Investors are closely watching a string of upcoming data releases that could reinforce that expectation. Core PCE inflation and the final revision to second-quarter GDP are due on Wednesday, 30 September, while September employment figures are scheduled for Friday, 2 October.
The broader outlook points firmly to a higher-for-longer rate environment. An analyst at S&P Global Ratings acknowledged that yields could continue to drift higher gradually and warned: ‘We see the energy price shock extending into 2027.’
For Angola, the scenario has two distinct faces. Crude above US$100 per barrel bolsters the country’s export and fiscal revenues, providing a cushion for the state budget. However, higher US rates raise the cost of emerging-market financing, making new international bond issuance more expensive and increasing the burden of refinancing existing eurobonds, while also tending to exert downward pressure on emerging-market currencies against the dollar.
Source: Mercado / Original article: https://mercado.co.ao/juros-da-divida-americana-atingem-maximos-desde-2007-com-impasse-entre-washington-e-teerao/
