Global oil demand is expected to experience a significant slowdown throughout 2026. This forecast, released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), estimates a year-on-year contraction in demand of around 420,000 barrels per day (kb/d), bringing global consumption to 104 million barrels per day (mb/d), a level 1.3 mb/d lower than previous projections made before the current international conflict.
According to the Oil Market Report for April, published on Wednesday, 13 May, the sharpest deterioration in demand is expected in the second quarter of 2026, with a drop of 2.45 million barrels per day. Of this total, countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are expected to account for a reduction of around 930,000 barrels per day, while non-OECD economies are projected to contribute a decline of 1.5 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency also highlights that the petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently the most affected by the contraction in energy demand. However, it warns that higher prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-reduction measures will increasingly impact fuel consumption.
Data also show that global oil supply deteriorated further in April, falling by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day to 95.1 mb/d, bringing cumulative losses since February to 12.8 mb/d. The worsening of the global energy crisis remains closely linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main maritime routes for crude oil transport, which has significantly affected production and exports from Gulf countries operating 14.4 mb/d below pre-crisis levels.
Nevertheless, the outlook for 2026 remains challenging. Assuming that flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume from June, forecasts point to an average decline of 3.9 mb/d in global oil supply over the next year. As a result, global supply is expected to settle at around 102.2 mb/d, in a context still marked by high geopolitical uncertainty.
Regarding global oil inventories, they increased by 129 million barrels in March and a further 117 million barrels in April, according to preliminary international market data.
In April, onshore inventories fell sharply by 170 million barrels, equivalent to an average reduction of 5.7 million barrels per day, due to logistical difficulties in supplying and transporting oil to major consumption hubs. In contrast, floating storage — including oil tankers used as temporary storage — recovered by 53 million barrels.
Source: O Telegrama
