The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained on Monday, October 13, its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026, projecting increases of 1.25% and 1.31%, respectively, driven by momentum in the transport sector.
In its October Monthly Report, published on Monday, OPEC reiterated its optimistic outlook for oil consumption, based on expectations that the global economy will grow at a solid rate of around 3% both this year and next.
The group estimates that in 2025, global oil demand will reach 105.14 million barrels per day (mb/d), an increase of 1.30 million barrels per day compared to last year, and 106.52 mb/d in 2026—an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day compared to this year.
These figures are identical to those published in the organization’s September report.
“Transport fuels are expected to drive global oil demand growth this year, with jet fuel rising by around 380,000 barrels per day year-on-year,” OPEC experts highlighted in the document. Of this total, about 120,000 barrels per day correspond to industrialized countries, where the organization expects continued improvements “in airline activity.”
Meanwhile, for all other petroleum product categories—except liquefied natural gas (LNG)—consumption has yet to return to 2019 levels, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Globally, diesel and gasoline demand are projected to rise by around 300,000 and 280,000 barrels per day, respectively, driven by higher consumption in India, China, and other non-OECD countries.
“Ongoing robust economic activity in West Asia, the continued recovery of global air transport, and strong expected demand for petrochemical feedstocks will be key factors supporting oil demand growth in 2025,” OPEC summarized.
However, cartel analysts also acknowledge significant “uncertainties” that could alter this outlook, such as “inflation levels, monetary tightening measures, and sovereign debt levels.”
For 2026, OPEC expects gasoline to lead global oil demand growth, with an additional 430,000 barrels per day, followed by jet fuel at around 360,000 barrels per day.
Regarding supply, the report maintains the forecasts published a month earlier, estimating total non-OPEC+ supply—that is, from “petro-states” outside the OPEC+ alliance (OPEC and its partners)—at 54.01 mb/d in 2025 and 54.64 mb/d in 2026.
These figures represent an annual increase of 810,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 630,000 barrels per day in 2026, mainly driven by countries in the Americas, particularly the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, according to the Vienna-based organization.
Meanwhile, the 22 OPEC+ member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, produced a total of 43.046 mb/d in September, up 630,000 barrels per day from August, according to estimates by independent institutions cited in the report.
The group has been gradually increasing production since April to reverse the sharp cuts implemented since 2022 to support prices and recover part of its lost market share on the international stage.
Source: Lusa
