The consultancy Oxford Economics has upgraded its forecast for Angola’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 1.9% this year and revised the oil production forecast, which is now expected to decline by 6.2% instead of the previously projected 6.9%.
“We now expect oil production to fall by 6.2%, not 6.9% as previously forecast, to an average of 1.091 million barrels per day in 2025, which should provide much-needed relief to an economy battered by low global oil prices, rising public debt, and high inflation and interest rates,” the analysts wrote.
In a commentary on the improved oil output in August, though still below the government’s target, the analysts from the consultancy’s African department note that production is expected to reach 1.11 million barrels per day at the beginning of next year, before stabilizing at an average of 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026.
Due to these developments, “GDP growth has been revised upwards from 1.6% to 1.9% this year to reflect these more favorable developments.”
Angola’s oil wells and infrastructure “are aging and have hindered production in recent years, adversely affecting an economy heavily dependent on these exports,” reads the analysis accessed by Lusa, which also highlights that “the early start of the Begonia, CLOV3, and Agogo wells is a positive development and eases the negative pressure on production.”
Angola’s oil production remained below the target in August, averaging 1.03 million barrels per day, marking six consecutive months below projections.
According to the monthly report from the National Agency for Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels (ANPG), production reached 32.07 million barrels in August, corresponding to an average of 1,034,655 barrels per day, compared to the forecast of 1,086,727 barrels per day.
Angola has not met its production target since March, fluctuating between a daily average of 1 million and 998,000 barrels per day, below the state concessionaire’s monthly projections.
The ANPG has attributed the shortfall to scheduled shutdowns of some units, natural reservoir decline, and technical constraints limiting installed capacity.
Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) performance exceeded expectations in August, with Angola LNG registering 4.93 million barrels of oil equivalent, about 9% above the forecast. This increase highlights the growing importance of this segment in Angola’s energy sector.
Source: Lusa
