Around 60% of this amount is intended to guarantee financing for the Lobito Refinery. Guarantees are also included to support the Deutsche Bank credit line, the fertilizer plant in Soyo, and the Agricultural Seasonal Credit programme. Indirect debt continues to gain weight in the State’s financing strategy.
In the 2026 Annual Borrowing Plan (PAE 2026), the Executive forecasts a stock of public guarantees amounting to Kz 1.32 billion, the maximum value authorised by the General State Budget Law, confirming the commitment to the use of sovereign guarantees as a financial viability instrument for strategic projects, without immediate impact on the public debt stock.
According to the provisions of the PAE 2026, the largest share of this amount is associated with Sinosure, totalling Kz 786.64 billion. This guarantee will cover financing to be contracted by Sonangol from the China Development Bank in the amount of USD 4.8 billion, aimed at enabling the execution of the Lobito Refinery project, which was not carried out in the 2025 fiscal year.
Sovereign guarantees amounting to Kz 186.7 billion are also allocated to support the use of the Deutsche Bank financing line, valued at one billion euros, in accordance with the agreement negotiated with the German financial institution. These guarantees relate mainly to projects developed by private Angolan and European companies.
State guarantees will also be made available to support the Agricultural Seasonal Credit programme, amounting to Kz 100 billion, granted by local commercial banks, primarily to allow farmers or cooperatives access to the funds needed for production. This measure is necessary because most of these agents do not meet the conditions required by commercial banks for credit access, with the State assuming the associated risk. Additionally, a guarantee of Kz 72.96 billion is planned to secure financing from Afreximbank for the construction of the Amufert fertilizer plant in Soyo, promoted by the Opaia Group and SonaGás/Sonangol, with an estimated cost of around USD 1.4 billion.
The PAE 2026 also includes guarantees granted to financial operations involving public institutions, namely the Development Bank of Angola (BDA) and the Bank of Commerce and Industry (BCI), aimed at mobilising resources to finance economic activities and strengthen operational capital. Although individual amounts are not detailed, these guarantees fall within the overall ceiling of Kz 1.32 billion projected for 2026.
Although they do not immediately form part of the government debt stock, these obligations represent contingent liabilities that may become effective debt if beneficiaries fail to meet their obligations. In a scenario of lower oil revenues, with the 2026 State Budget assuming an average oil price of USD 61 per barrel, the materialisation of these guarantees could further pressure the State Treasury.
The main weakness identified in the indirect debt chapter is the lack of detailed information on risks, probability of guarantee execution, and potential fiscal impact, limiting public scrutiny. In a politically sensitive year, the use of guarantees allows projects to be accelerated without formally worsening debt ratios, but transfers future risks that remain largely outside the scope of budgetary debate.
Source: Expansão
