There were 13,600 passenger flights worldwide on April 25, 2020, the lowest number recorded during the pandemic. It was an 86% drop in traffic compared to a few months earlier, according to travel analytics firm Cirium. There was nowhere to go.
Still, nine months later, Cirium estimates that 30 percent of global commercial aircraft are still parked. OAG, another aviation data and analytics company, reported that seat capacity remained at 50 percent in January 2021, compared to the same period a year earlier.
And new estimates from the International Air Transport Association show that the recovery will be slower than expected; instead of seeing a 50% increase by the end of 2021, as previously predicted, the association now estimates the worst-case scenario with a 13% rise in passenger traffic over 2020 figures.
As a result, airlines are shifting operations wherever there is demand. Leisure is now the focus; business travel is ruled out.
Fewer stopovers, more sunshine
Leisure travel has shown the first signs of recovery, with peaks in the northern hemisphere summer and at Christmas time. Business travel, on the other hand, may be permanently Zoom-limited; entrepreneurs like Bill Gates predict that business travel will fall permanently by 50 percent. In response, says Henry Harteveldt, president of aviation consultancy Atmosphere Research, airlines are migrating business routes connecting major cities to sunny leisure destinations.
United, Delta and American Airlines have cut flights to London, for example – either from New York, San Francisco or Washington. Direct flights previously common from U.S. hubs to Frankfurt, Tokyo, Sydney and Sao Paulo have also been cut. “Given the lack of demand in the business segment, we are focusing on leisure travel and offering more services to customers traveling to visit family and friends,” said American Airlines vice president of network planning Brian Znotins.
There is one advantage for leisure travelers in the U.S.: fewer stopovers. The “point-to-point” routes, would not have been profitable before the pandemic. But today, connections are especially costly and convenience reigns supreme, says Paul Tumpowsky, founder and CEO of travel agency Skylark.
Those departing from secondary cities like Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Indianapolis will find more direct flights than ever before – especially if they’re going to warmer places in Florida like Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Orlando, Key West and Tampa.
Why the Florida craze?
“Everything we do stems from demand,” says Ankit Gupta, United’s vice president of domestic network planning. “The sunny states are seeing much more demand for travel than before, relatively speaking, while in the northeastern U.S. it has simply evaporated,” he adds.
